新加坡與大馬的十字路口

新加坡今年可能會舉行嘅大選,同埋馬來西亞砂磱越州議會選舉,兩者表面上毫無關係,但事實上,兩者暗地裡有一定關係。

大家會發現一個現象,就係新加坡依家討論緊走兩黨制,特別《聯合早報》俾工人黨嘅篇幅,明顯係多過以往唔少。對於人民行動黨嚟講,兩黨制除咗要準備李光耀去世後嘅新局勢外,另一方面,亦同大馬民主行動黨越嚟越勇不可擋有關。

經過咁多年東征西討,民主行動黨喺都會地區己經係相當變態一股力量,今次砂州行動黨派十五名候選贏十二席,成為民聯成績最強的一隊,如果唔係公正黨硬膠,同砂拉越國民黨兩敗俱傷,協調失敗,我諗民聯一早有三分一席。而今年唔可能提早大選,因為一提早大選,隨時連柔佛州都奉送行動黨,甚至搞到政黨輪替,完全唔講得笑。

如果民主行動黨/公正黨/回教黨執政,亦即係李光耀馬來西亞人的馬來西亞實現,如果人民行動黨返去馬來西亞玩政治,依家呢班日日不戰而勝嘅友仔玩手指呀?所以對新加坡人民行動黨嚟講,可能有一個實力相當嘅工人黨陪佢一齊玩,至少有練兵作用變咗好重要,因為剩低李資政身經百戰,但李光耀一騎鶴西去,真係可以有打逆境波經驗,成個新加坡剩番個劉程強加林瑞蓮,詹時中都老到要退休,大佬,點掂呀。

大馬民主行動黨打咗咁多年逆境波,己經練就一身選舉功夫,加上李光耀年事己高,今年新加坡大選,好可能係開始面對真正後李光耀年代嘅開始。如果工人黨可以攻入一個集選區,代表佢地有跨種族嘅實力,咁樣基礎上發展兩黨制,可能係最佳方案。民主行動黨嘅跨種族代表性有待提升,呢個造就人民行動黨同工人黨有機會繼續喺新大馬玩政治嘅優勢。

11 則迴響

Filed under 南洋政治

11 responses to “新加坡與大馬的十字路口

  1. echykr

    As a Sarawakian “in exile", allow me to add a few more points.

    1. Sarawak and Sabah (East Malaysia) are distinct from Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia/Malaya) in that they were supposed to be separate domains from Malaya, just like Singapore, but got convinced by UK to form Malaysia with the other 3. Lee Kuan-yew quickly saw through UMNO’s lies and left, though Sarawak and Sabah were not so lucky, and so over 50 years its natural resources were plundered. We Chinese only managed to get by due to our resilience. Though this election shows that even the normally apolitical Chinese have thought enough is enough.

    2. The infrastructure in the Peninsular is much more developed, hence more people there have access to alternative media blogs and forums and not get brainwashed by UMNO so easily, which is why support between the UMNO-led National Front (BN) and opposition People’s Alliance (PR) there is nearly 50-50.

    OTOH, East Malaysia is very rural due to the above natural exploitation by the BN government, and they intend to keep it that way for obvious reasons – to keep the rural population misinformed. Hence most rural voters still vote for BN. This results in East Malaysia becoming “kingmakers" and provided BN the bulk of the seats during the “Tsunami General Election" in 2008, allowing BN to cling on to power.

    3. “公正黨硬膠,同砂拉越國民黨兩敗俱傷,協調失敗" You’re only half correct, Martin. Though there have been many reliable bloggers that have proof that the Sarawak National Party (SNAP 砂拉越國民黨) is an UMNO Trojan Horse, secretly funded by UMNO, which explains why the People’s Justice Party (PKR 公正黨) have broken off negotiations with them. As a result, exit polls shows that most opposition voters have voted for PKR, where they won 17% of the vote, whereas SNAP only obtained a pathetic 2% and were wiped out. The Islamic Party (PAS 回教黨) has yet to become a significant force in East Malaysia, winning 0 seats out of 5 in this election.

    Though PKR still has a lot to learn from DAP in election strategy as most of the rural seats it contested in still voted overwhelmingly for BN. PKR only won 3 out of 43 candidates, compared to the Democratic Action Party (DAP 民主行動黨) who won 12 out of 15 (21% of the vote).

    4. Though BN retained 2/3rd majority in the State with only 55% of the vote (thanks to gerrymandering), last Saturday’s Sarawak State Election was significant in that the urban seats were completely won by PR, and most of these seats were Chinese in composition as well, meaning that PR has a good chance in the next General Election of wiping out other BN-Chinese parties around the country.

    Currently, the BN-Chinese parties hold up to 17 seats, enough to swing the balance of power. Ever since 2008 and subsequent by-elections, there has been more and more Chinese voters coming out to vote against the government due to increasing anger at them. Without realizing it, we Malaysian Chinese have become the kingmakers.

  2. S

    Wouldn’t Lee want to have his own PAP/DAP as the sole ruling party in a re-merged Malaysia?

    And is Barisan Nasional performing better in East Malaysia than in Peninsular Malaysia?

  3. echykr

    S, you would have been correct had Malaysia never practiced Malay-supremacist racism that forced out Singapore. In such case, LKY would have easily been PM of this meritocratic Malaysia with his PAP ruling with an iron fist.

    Though the DAP was born from the PAP, the separation of Singapore and Malaysia meant that they’ve gone through radically different evolutionary paths as to become distinctly different from each other.

    Political spectrum wise, PAP is centre right, while DAP is centre left.

    In the 2008 General Election, BN has 54 seats out of 56 from East Malaysia, though it’s down to 53 after a by-election last year delivered a Sarawak seat for PR and set the stage for this mini-Tsunami last Saturday.

    The 2011 Sarawak State Election saw a massive swing against BN, even in seats which they retained. They may continue to spin that they have 2/3rd majority support, but the defeat of their Deputy Chief Minister speaks volumes. It is only by decades of gerrymandering and widespread reports of voting irregularities in the rural areas that they managed to cling to power.

    The next GE should be interesting, as PR has begun to produce chinks in BN’s armour in the rural areas.

  4. 飛蚊導彈

    要發展兩黨制,在野黨最少要有三到四成議席才能發揮影響力.

    但是現在新加坡所有在野黨合共只有百分之二的議席,
    與執政人民行動黨強弱非常懸殊.若果要他們扮演兩黨制中在野黨的角色,
    他們要獲得比現在多十幾倍的議席,就算人民行動黨願意放棄打壓,
    在野黨也需要數以十年的時間發展,顯然在可見的將來是不能做到的.

    結果就是,在大馬政黨輪替,實現"馬來西亞人的馬來西亞"之後
    新加坡仍是由人民行動黨完全控制.新馬合併的話,人民行動黨還是"玩手指".
    更隨時將現在新加坡的那些控制傳媒,打壓言論,干預司法等等陋習傳回大馬,
    結果大馬民眾會發覺人民/民主行動黨跟國民陣線沒有分別而放棄人民聯盟.

  5. 飛蚊導彈

    還有一點,

    “有一個實力相當嘅工人黨陪佢一齊玩,至少有練兵作用"

    如果人民行動黨的領導層真的是這樣想的話,顯示他們不尊重民主,
    只視反對黨為幫助自己壯大實力的工具,這樣就算能夠"培育"反對黨,
    也只會是由人民行動黨控制的傀儡,對新加坡以至合併後大馬的民主有害無益.
    人民行動黨到了大馬只會成為民聯的"票房毒藥".

  6. > 更隨時將現在新加坡的那些控制傳媒,打壓言論,干預司法等等陋習傳回大馬

    大馬本來就是這樣,不需要「學」新加坡。

    > 只視反對黨為幫助自己壯大實力的工具,這樣就算能夠”培育”反對黨,
    也只會是由人民行動黨控制的傀儡

    不完全同意,因為這樣「培育」反對黨和中共式的浸透控制不同。李光耀的意圖是找一個意識和行動黨相若的政黨(現在似乎是工人黨)做第二黨,咁樣日後就算要「還政於民」,他原本的治國方針亦得以保留。

  7. echykr

    @飛蚊導彈

    “更隨時將現在新加坡的那些控制傳媒,打壓言論,干預司法等等陋習傳回大馬"

    Erm, what are you talking about? As 方潤 says, this method already been practiced by UMNO in Malaysia for many years, and the Web 2.0 social media sites like Facebook, Twitter and the various blogs have long proven that tactic to be very ineffective without a China-style Great Firewall.

    The only reason the PAP is more effective in this regard is because Singapore is small and easier to control.

    “結果大馬民眾會發覺人民/民主行動黨跟國民陣線沒有分別而放棄人民聯盟"
    “人民行動黨到了大馬只會成為民聯的”票房毒藥”."

    Like I said, DAP and PAP have been divorced for so long that they could no longer recognize each other as “relatives". So I don’t think we Malaysian voters are that stupid as to not be able to tell the difference between them.

  8. echykr

    “就算人民行動黨願意放棄打壓,
    在野黨也需要數以十年的時間發展,顯然在可見的將來是不能做到的"

    Tell that to the PR supporters in Malaysia.

    In 2004 election, the anti-BN MPs (before they form the People’s Alliance coalition) was only 12 out of 222 members. In the 2008 Tsunami GE, it’s gone up to 82 (78 after certain “traitors" jumped ship).

  9. 飛蚊導彈

    @echykr

    第一點我承認錯誤,可能看見大馬有比較多元化的政黨政治,言論方面會開放一點.
    第二點方面,如果屬實的話,人民行動黨跟民主行動黨在意識形態和和施政手段都大相逕庭,人民行動黨要加入民聯會十分困難.
    但是第三點卻不能認同,民聯要經過四年,進行了大整合,還要因為國陣政績差才能將議席提升六倍多,新加坡反對派所佔議席比例,比民聯更低,就算有民聯的升幅,也不過佔國會議席一成多,還是沒有影響力.

    @方潤

    “找一個意識和行動黨相若的政黨做第二黨",
    不正是像民建聯找工聯會做"B隊"嗎?
    不完全開放對反對派的壓制,人民還是沒有選擇.

  10. S

    It’s only a tactic for the DAP to be centre-left.., while the PAP is basically national socialist. Lee Kuan Yew is just a pragmatist. And i’d agree with 飛蚊導彈 that the PAP/DAP will just be another Barisan Nasional if they got power to rule in a re-merged Malaysia. It’s going to take decades for S’pore and/or Malaysia to nurture an effective and capable opposition.

  11. echykr

    @S

    PAP had the advantage of being in government for all these years, and so is used to the oppression method in order to maintain order. It’s just that under LKY they’re more skillful in putting that power to good use, rather than let it get over their heads like BN.

    Contrast that to their “poor cousins" DAP, who is in the exact opposite position, having to work their arses out to build up support over decades as well as having to put up with oppression and media black-out all over.

    While I agree that DAP being centre-left is a tactic to attract the anti-BN voters, by being in opposition against such difficult odds, I am of the belief that they would cherish and respect democracy more so if they finally do take control of the Federal Government in Kuala Lumpur.

    You only need to look at the excellent job Lim Guan-Eng has done for the DAP-led Penang State Government since 2008. All my relatives in Penang are STILL raving about him after 3 years, lol.

    So I do not completely agree that DAP, let alone PR as a whole, would let PAP join their ranks so quickly in the near future in a re-merged Malaysia. PAP would first need to show that it is sincere in giving parties opposed to it an absolute fair chance in competing.

    @飛蚊導彈

    A fair argument for the 3rd point. I neglected to take into account PR’s success in 2008 was largely due to the anger against BN’s misrule and corruption. PAP has largely been clean of corruption and is rather more efficient than BN, hence less public anger against them.

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