陳德霖,咪硬膠喇

陳 德 霖 : iBond 跟 通 脹 掛 勾   息 率 吸 引
2011-03-01 HKT 11:00
金 管 局 總 裁 陳 德 霖 表 示 , 如 果 財 政 司 司 長 決 定 發 行 ibond , 金 管 局 會 協 助 落 實 , 在 技 術 層 面 亦 已 作 出 研 究 。 他 指 出 , 現 時 3 年 期 外 匯 基 金 債 券 息 率 約 1-1.5% , 如 果 iBond 跟 通 脹 掛 勾 , 相 信 息 率 會 較 高 , 會 有 吸 引 力 。

我喺中環飲緊English Breakfast Tea果陣睇到,幾乎噴咗出嚟。

OMG,你依家iBond同通脹掛鈎叫吸引,咁街外面啲Notes係乜嚟?

iBond吸引要取決幾個條件:

1. 發行機構:但唔可以Grading太高,因為Grading太高就唔會有吸引Coupon,以HKMA或者HKSAR咁高嘅信貸評級,你點俾高Coupon俾人?你依家出隻high yield product又咪係官商勾結(我甚少聽聞有高信貸評級嘅政府,專登出隻高yield note俾人玩),邊啲人有能力買債券至得架?

2. 你同乜掛鈎:賭通脹,咪硬膠喇。依家行內大多數USD Note,都係賭Libor,喺Libor + 若干點子嚟玩(當然有更複雜嘅玩法,但唔解說住),如果我玩Libor + 若干點子嘅Fixed Income product己經享有穩定收益,我點解要陪你玩iBond?Short上腦。

3. 流動性:如果我可以好容易喺市場拋出去,或者可以作高比率抵押,令到你可以取得低息貸款喺股票市場玩嘢就話啫。但係同通脹掛鈎票據,又係高yield,如果可以抵押(因港府信貸評級),你即係送子彈俾班大鱷啫。如果成街唔接受抵押,又係煩,邊個同你買?

成件事越嚟越似官商勾結玩意,最後大部分iBond嘅貨唔會喺小市民手上,小市民唔識玩,亦都無能力玩。最後去晒啲玩fixed income嘅有錢佬手上,我唔明有乜道理支持iBond。

都係果個問題,香港無乜財演係玩fixed income,無人踢爆你政府玩邊科啫。

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10 responses to “陳德霖,咪硬膠喇

  1. Ever heard of TIPS (US) and ILG (UK)?

    You know what, fuck it, there is a whole table of inflation indexed bond in wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation-indexed_bond; hell, the US even has 2!

    just type “inflation indexed bond" in google, takes only 5 sec. Read and research before you speak is always a good policy.

  2. martinoei 黃世澤

    To 山中:

    唔喺市場度trade,唔該唔好用Wikipedia或者叫人用Google嚟撻,我好憎齋講「理論」

    TIPS正係市場上不受歡迎嘅債券,任何實際做財務嘅友,都反對玩Retail債券,因為貴而收入低。TIPS係一百美金可以入場玩,但無流動性,押又押唔到,賣又賣唔到(你估你想有人接貨,一定有人接,Exchange買賣交易費貴,而OTC大把嘢玩喇),但由於又係美國國債,結果扣咗通脹實際嘅yield低到無朋友,扣晒一大堆交易費等等(唔駛custody cost嘅,唔駛俾commission嘅),結論得個桔。

    而依家個市況,我唔喺Bloomberg機搵,我俾WSJ嘅睇

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips.html

    你投資緊啲乜?

    如果係政府吹風話幾千港紙做入場費,咁最後會係成棚人因為損晒手拋平貨出街,然後大戶收集賤價作為拎free money嘅子彈。個市就係咁玩,唔係啲經濟學家幻想嘅嘢都啱。

  3. @黃世澤

    That’s because TIPS and all other indexed-bonds are not for “investment" use. They are merely a better storage unit than cash and other ordinary bonds.

    If you have a lot of money flowing around to invest in high risk/high yield, enough to do your own hedging and enough time to manage you profilo and make choices, good for you, but many others do not have the options. That’s why some buy stocks, some buy bonds, some buy funds, some fixed with banks, some got con’d into subprime derivatives.

    TIPS and other indexed are designed for people who have enough of money to retire with but not enough to play the market so much. That’s why nobody wants to sell, and that’s why Wall Street went against it in the first place as they cannot charge transaction fees with it.

    Also, on TIPS, if you have been reading data, or not hiding under a rock in the past couple years, US has been running towards deflation, (see http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/disinflation-continues/), at least disinflation, not inflation, CPI has been low, and there is also the delay in data released and adjustment, so yield is low for soon matured bonds. When you look at long term, yield is up again. Still despite deflation, especially in deflation, people get original money back, in terms of real income, gain not loss.

    And what are US bonds’ rates anyway? http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/, look at long term, trend with TIPS coincide.

    So somehow you are risk averse, like many American who are facing severe unemployment, but you have a modest saving, you expect high inflation for whatever reasons in the long term, so you want to put money(at least part) in something equal to bond risk. TIPS can be a good option. Some people worry inflation, some people don’t. You against them having options?

    If you don’t know (or don’t care, I will give you the behefit of the doubt)the basic concept behind TIPS, how do you categorise it? Do you equate US T-bill with say some blue chip secuirty? If you don’t know or don’t care the concept behind real rate and real income, how can you tell if TIPS is a gain or loss? Or do you assume everybody invest in the same manner or has the same capacity or face the same level of risk?

    Furthermore, if you are so worried about management fees, what don’t you buy it from the Treasury “Direct" http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/myaccount/myaccount.htm? You think govt can charge a lower admin cost?

    Better still, the govt is selling bond, a mere promise to pay in the future. It won’t hurt anyone even if the thing tanks so bad. The only bad situation is severe and prolonged deflation, where the govt need to pay high value cash and people stop buying the thing due to the deflation.

    Ignore theory? You are arguing from ignorance dude.
    Oh, if inflation-indexed is so useless, how do you explain every major economic power having at least one? Are they, what, all stupid? For a similar question, we undertand that cash is a very bad storage unit, but why do we all hold cash anyway? Answer: different fucking functions.

    oh by the way, do I have to be a man to know a man when I see a man? 「你投資緊啲乜?」is really meaningless. The question is, if your argument/critique is credible, why didn’t you mention the same instruments that exist litertarily in every major country? The question, thus, is about you partiality and bias.

    Now, if you had argued how sucky HK ibond is with the comparison to other inflation-indexed bonds, then that would be a meaningful discussion. If you had mere said how sucky HK ibond is without comparison, then you are just being ignorant and failed to do research. On the other hand, if you had argued how sucky HK ibond is with full knowledge of TIPS and especially the history of TIPS, and still not make the comparison, I have every reason to doubt that you are arguing for your interest group, meaning the financial sector.

  4. martinoei 黃世澤

    1. 原來外國膠你要跟佢膠?

    2. 香港嘅iBond,係唔係美國嘅TIPS咁玩都成問題。香港最鍾意抄其外殼,實際係另一樣嘢。

  5. @黃世澤:

    ….Look dude, I respect you for what you have done in the argument against the HK gov’t and (may or may not) promoting public discourse, but sometimes you are really not helping. Bear with me for a moment.

    「1. 原來外國膠你要跟佢膠?」
    Nowhere did I say that. But if you want to say how bad one thing is, do you need to explain the subject in details and with “theories"? You missed an opportunity here to say “hey ibond is bad because xyz" “and even TIPS is bad because xyz apply to TIPS……so HK should not follow". Then, wow, you have reason behind you, and then we can discuss this matter knowing truely what this is about. But you missed that important step and your post has become a rant. And without that you are misleading people who read your post. Furthermore, like I said, for people who know the history of TIPS they have the right reasons to suspect you that you are tyring to mislead on purpose. You don’t want that, do you?

    「2. 香港嘅iBond,係唔係美國嘅TIPS咁玩都成問題。香港最鍾意抄其外殼,實際係另一樣嘢。」
    Don’t you think I know that? See my post 《ibond不是問題,問題是財政司沒腦》(http://wp.me/pXZbk-5d). This point (your point 2. that is) what you (and everybody) should be getting at, assuming we have good reasons to beleive TIPS is working well. Now, the point of attack is to show how HK govt is not going to follow the form to make ibond a good policy. This is important because, suppose we elect the HK govt 10 years from now and they find that ibond is a really good deal, then there is nothing they can do in the future because of the stigma leave with ibond, all because of irrational discussion. I assume you don’t want that either.

  6. 依馬打

    黃元山 : 港式 TIPS 三不像

    http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20110225&sec_id=15307&subsec_id=15326&art_id=15013212&cat_id=12729532&coln_id=12729539

    “… 舉個例子,美國現在的 5年期 TIPS回報是 0.5%,而 5年期國債回報卻有 2.4%,反映市場的通脹預期是差不多平均每年 2%( Breakeven inflation rate)。但如果往後 5年,真實的通脹只有 1%, TIPS的投資便會跑輸國債,而且價格也會下跌,甚至有負回報。"

  7. martinoei 黃世澤

    To 依馬打:

    黃元山基本上講晒行內真係trade fixed income嘅人,對TIPS之類物件嘅睇法。

  8. We can play out the scenarios:

    Suppose TIPS set rate is 1% and 5yr bond is 3%, sticking with the 2% difference. And we have 5 levels of inflation: inflation at 5%, 2%, 1%, 0 and -1%, in real terms:

    1. For 5% inflation: TIPS (assume totally adjusted) gives 1+4=5%, bond gives, no matter what 3, 3-5=-2. TIPS wins
    2. For 2 % inflation: TIPS 1+1=2, bond 3-2=1 TIPS wins
    3. For 1%: TIPS 1+0=1, bond 3-1=2. Bond wins
    4. For 0: TIPS 1+0=1, bond 3-0=3. Bond wins
    5. For -1 TIPS 1-1=set rate=1, bond 3–1=4. Bond wins

    That’s in relative terms, if you think in absolute terms TIPS never lose because deflation issue is cut off and the princpal will return in full if it is greater than face value. Even in disinflation, deflation scenarios 3, 4 and 5, it still doesn’t lose, it’s just that the bond faits better. But bond has real absolute loss in case of 1 and relative loss in 2. TIPS has no real loss, no real gain in all scenarios.

    So you are risk adverse, worry about inflation not deflation and disinflation, and want to have a really really save retirement fund, which is your pick? If you want to get nominal gain and higher yield, true, there are many much better options, and I have been though that.

    Now go back to severe and prolonged deflation scenario. There is a school of thought suggesting that TIPS can “really" gains a lot, see http://thefinancebuff.com/tips-during-deflation.html. Reason being at that time even long term bond has been really low rate and stocks fluate with price (go low). So, going back in time http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/08/bond-vigilantes-still-invisible/, the thing will be completely another story. Thus need to read things in context.

    To reiterate, TIPS is a better storage unit than cash, fixed saving, national bond (in most time, as long as inflation is running and steady). It does not really let you gain with it (not for the most time anyway). It is a next to zero risk product backed by govt for the soon-to-be retired, it also set a upper limits of how much one can buy.

    Questions remain: 1) Is TIPS a good product? Yes, and if you don’t like it don’t buy it, at the very least it cannot hurt you or the economy, unlike something called the CDS. 2) Would anyone really lose during deflation, or at anytime? Yes, the government solely, and when the prospect of recovery is dim in extreme severe deflation (I also mentioned this in my 2nd post above) . 3) Will it help HK to get pass the inflation hike? Not really. But it helps the retirees who can put money into it. 4) Can it be a good product in HK? Can be, but hard to imagine, because it is hard to imagine HK govt will work in a bona fide good manner, besides, the HK treasury does not mention TIPS and how it works; furthermore, it won’t use the capital it gets to spend it in a productive manner.

  9. Eric

    Martin: 咁ibond係咪好過做定期?

  10. 最有趣既係,膠子山姓孫果位聲稱iBond係民主黨建議的,唔知你知唔知內情。

    如果係真我都覺得幾過癮,竟然民主黨講野政府會聽。

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